Why are Latinos key in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia

In the elections of November 5th, 2024, 36 million Latinos are eligible to vote, but there are less than 3 million of those whose votes are even more important for presidential candidates. They are the Hispanic/Latinos that live in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Why? Because in those 4 states, Latinos can tip the scale in favor of one candidate or the other and lead them to the White House. 

As we explained in Factchequeado, presidential elections are usually decided in the swing states. There, according to polls, either the Democratic or Republican candidate could win. Campaigns pay the most attention to them, since the candidate that wins the swing states normally also wins the election. 

For 2024, analysts of the Brennan Center for Justice, an ally of Factchequeado, agree that the swing states will be Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Latinos have more electoral weight in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. In Arizona and Nevada they represent over 20% of the electorate and in Georgia and Pennsylvania, the two most important swing states on number of Latino voters, 6% of the Hispanic/Latino electorate would have been enough to turn over the result of the last 2 elections. 

In Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, the Latino vote can determine the winner because those 4 states have 52 electoral votes (we've already explained in Factchequeado how the Electoral College chooses the president), which are enough to change the result of an election: in 4 of the last 6 presidential elections, the margin between both candidates was less than 52 electoral votes. President Joe Biden won 4 of those states in 2020 and would have lost without them.

Arizona, a swing state with 25% of Latino voters

Arizona had always been considered a Republican state. In fact, the Republican candidate won 13 of the last 15 presidential elections until 2016. However, in 2020 Biden beat then-president and Republican candidate Donald Trump for only 0.3% of the votes. This victory owes a lot to the support of Latino voters, who represented 19% of total voters in Arizona, and 61% of them voted for Biden, and only 27% for Trump.

For the 2024 elections, according to the Pew Research Center, 1.3 million Latinos are eligible to vote in Arizona, 25% of the entire state, which makes it the fourth state with the most Latino voters, only after New Mexico (45%), California (33%) and Texas (32%). Considering that the last 4 presidential elections in Arizona were determined by less than 10 points, Hispanics/Latinos are key.

Half a million Latino voters in Georgia can decide the elections

In 2020, Biden's win was narrow and decisive: He won with a margin of only 0.3%, less than 12,000 votes, in an election where more than 5 million people participated. Those 12,000 votes gave Democrats their first win in a presidential election in Georgia in 24 years and the contribution of Hispanics/Latinos was decisive: over 200,000 voted for Biden. 

The winner in Georgia will get 16 electoral votes, the second highest reward of all swing states, and almost half a million Latinos are eligible to vote. According to a survey by GALEO, a non-partisan non-profit organization whose mission is to increase civic and political participation of Latinos in Georgia, the top concerns for Latinos are the rising cost of living, improving wages, the costs of health care, protecting immigrant rights, mass shootings and abortion rights.

Nevada, with over 20% of Latino voters, usually chooses the winner

In Nevada, Democrats have won the last 4 presidential elections, mostly because of favorable results in the counties were Las Vegas and Reno are, where the Latino vote is crucial: in 2020, Biden beat Trump for less than 35,000 votes and received over 140,000 votes from Latino communities. 

In the last few years, Republicans tried to gain support from Latino communities in Nevada, and in 2024, over 450,000 Latinos are eligible to vote, 22% of all registered voters. Besides being a swing state, Nevada voters are good at choosing a winner: in the last 100 years, they only voted twice for a presidential candidate that didn’t end in the White House after the elections. 

Pennsylvania: The most important swing state 

Pennsylvania is the ultimate swing state: in the last 12 presidential elections, a candidate has never received even 55% of votes. It was one of these states that gave Trump the win in 2016, and then Biden in 2020, and it is also the most important swing state because it has the largest population and 19 electoral votes that can be decisive.

In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania with over 80,000 votes, 1.2% of the total. To visualize the importance of the Latino electorate in this win, it's worth remembering that Biden won the Latino vote in Pennsylvania with a difference of 42 percentage points and 140,000, almost twice as much as his advantage over Trump. They key of this success was his popularity among Latino women - 83% voted for him.

In 2024, according to the Pew Research Center, Latinos represent 6% of the electorate in Pennsylvania, less than 600,000. If the participation rate is the same as in previous presidential elections, their choice could determine which candidate wins in the ultimate swing state, and, therefore, who becomes the next president of the United States.

Here you can check Factchequeado’s #ElectoralExplainer - A guide with what you need to know about the 2024 presidential elections

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